Credit Allocation and Public Credit Guarantee Schemes for Small Businesses: Evidence from Japan

本論文は、日本の1968年から2005年の地域・産業別データを用いて、中小企業向け公的信用保証制度と資金配分の関係について分析した。多くの先行研究が指摘している通り、情報の非対称性の存在により、中小企業の資金制約が大企業よりも深刻になる。公的信用保証制度は中小企業の資金制約を緩和し、社会厚生を向上させる可能性がある。もし、信用保証付き融資が高い付加価値の産業や地域に配分されていれば、公的信用保証制度は資金配分を向上させていると解釈できる。対照的に、公的信用保証制度は資金配分を歪める可能性もある。第一に、金融機関が公的信用保証制度を使い融資を行った場合、デフォルトしても金融機関の損失は100%カバーされる。そのため、金融機関が中小企業をモニターするインセンティブが失われる。第二に、中小企業政策が、社会政策としての機能を担っており、弱者である中小企業を支援していた可能性がある。この場合、公的信用保証制度の利用と付加価値の関係が負になると考えられる。また、公的信用保証の利用後に中小企業のデフォルト（代位弁済）が上昇する。本論文は公的信用保証制度が効率的な資金配分ではなく、社会政策的な配分を促進していることを示した。

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the use of a public credit guarantee scheme for small businesses and the efficiency of credit allocation using region- and industry-level data from Japan for the period from 1968 to 2005. Studies argue that credit constraints are more severe for small businesses than for large firms. Therefore, a public credit guarantee scheme that mitigates this constraint could enhance social welfare. If credit guaranteed loans were allocated to firms with high value added, the public credit guarantee scheme would enhance the efficiency of credit allocation. Conversely, however, public credit guarantee schemes can squeeze credit allocations for small businesses. When financial institutions offer loans through credit guarantee schemes, they can offer loans to small businesses at low risk to themselves, even though small businesses are high-risk borrowers, which may reduce the incentives of the financial institutions to monitor the activity of small business borrowers. In addition, because the public credit guarantee scheme in Japan is a component of a broader set of social policies aiming to eliminate inequality, credit guaranteed loans can be offered to economically distressed firms. We identify a negative relationship between the amount of credit guaranteed and the value added. Moreover, we find that the greater the amount of credit guaranteed loans offered to firms, the larger the default rate among small businesses. We show that the public credit guarantee scheme reduced the efficiency of credit allocations, which has implications for industry and regional growth.