Labor Segmentation and the Outmigration Intention of Highly Skilled Foreign Workers: Evidence from Asian-born foreign workers in Japan

本研究は日本にいる高度人材の外国人労働者の移民流出の意思決定に影響を与える要因について、計量モデルを用いて考察した。日本にいる高度人材の外国人労働者の9割以上は、アジア出身の外国人労働者であるため、本研究の分析結果はアジア、特に中国出身の外国人に限る。移民に関する経済理論に基づき、外国人労働者の海外流出の意思は、労働者の将来の期待賃金によって決められることを考えて、移民の期待賃金モデルを構成して推定を行った。結果として、まず、教育年数と、出身国との平均賃金格差がアジア出身の移民の流出に与える有意な影響は見つからなかった。しかし、労働力分断の変数には有意な推定値が得られた。いわゆる、日本人と区別して外国人を雇用する企業で働くアジア出身の外国人労働者は、海外へ流出する可能性が高いことが示された。一方、日本特有の終身雇用制度は、アジア出身の外国人労働者の移民流出を減少させることも示された。また、現在の仕事から得られる満足度が高いアジア出身者は、将来の海外流出の意思が低いことも示された。最後に、現在の仕事に就いた当時のモチベーションにも有意な結果が得られた。即ち、就職当時に日本で生活したいために日本の仕事に就いたアジア出身の労働者は、将来海外へ流出する傾向が低く、一方、日本で働くことによって高い賃金が得られるという期待で仕事に就いたアジア出身の労働者は、将来海外へ流出する傾向が高いことが分かった。

This study examines the determinants of the outmigration intentions of highly skilled foreign workers, i.e., workers who received post-secondary education, following conventional migration theories. Data come from a survey of firms and their foreign employees in Japan; most of whom were born in Asia, especially in China (77.4% of total observations). The results found that education level and average wage gaps did not significantly affect the outmigration decisions of Asian-born workers. However, the labor segmentation variable, which represents the firm’s differentiation between foreign and native workers, has a significant estimated effect. Results indicate that Asian-born employees of firms that differentiate between foreigners and native workers are more likely to migrate away from Japan. The explanation could be that labor segmentation reduces foreign workers’ expected future wage. Furthermore, the lifetime employment system in Japan could reduce the outmigration of Asian-born foreign workers, because the reduced future unemployment risk increases workers’ expected wage from working in Japan. Moreover, a higher current job satisfaction could have a negative effect on Asian-born foreign workers’ outmigration intention. Finally, among the control variables for the original migration motivations, Asian-born foreign workers who were motivated by the Japanese lifestyle tend to remain in Japan, while Asian-born foreign workers who were motived by wages are more likely to migrate away in the future.

Published: Liu, Yang, 2023. "Labour segmentation and outmigration in Japan: Evidence using firm–worker matching data," International Migration, Volume 61, Issue 2 (2023), 123-137.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/imig.12988