Sources of Growth and Stagnation in the Japanese Economy: An Analysis Based on Data for Listed Firms Spanning More Than Five Decades

本研究では、政策投資銀行「企業財務データバンク」の上場企業データ（以下DBJデータベースと呼ぶ）を用いて1960年から2015年までの55年間について、ほぼ全上場企業を対象に生産性上昇（労働生産性および全要素生産性TFPで測った）の成長会計分析と生産性動学分析を行った。日本経済が世界で絶賛された1980年代と長期停滞期のうち1995－2010年においてはマクロ経済の生産性動向とは逆に、上場企業では1980年代に生産性上昇が大幅に低下し、1995－2010年に生産性が堅調に上昇した。またアベノミクス下でマクロ経済の生産性上昇が加速した2010-15年には、上場企業の生産性は停滞した。このようなマクロ経済と上場企業の間の生産性動向の違いは、上場企業とそれ以外の主に中堅・中小企業の間で、国際化や有形・無形資産投資、非正規雇用の拡大、リストラ等の速度が異なり、生産性上昇の規模間格差が変動しているためと推測される。日本経済の生産性動向を理解する上で、生産性の規模間格差の研究が今後重要であろう。一方、生産性動学分析によれば、TFPの高い上場企業にそれ以外の上場企業から資源が再配分されることにより上場企業全体のTFPが上昇する効果は小さく、上場企業全体のTFP上昇のほとんどは各企業内のTFP上昇（内部効果）で生み出された。ただし、2010-15年の非製造業では、大きなプラスの再配分効果が観測された。

（本稿は、日本語版のディスカッション・ペーパー（21-J-027）を英語版にしたものである。）

This study presents growth accounting and an analysis of productivity dynamics (as measured by labor productivity and total factor productivity, TFP) covering almost all listed firms in Japan spanning the 55-year period from 1960 to 2015 using the Development Bank of Japan's "Corporate Financial Databank" on listed firms. The results show that during much of the period, the productivity growth of listed firms diverged substantially from macroeconomic productivity trends: during the 1980s, when the Japanese economy received worldwide acclaim, listed firms' productivity growth declined substantially, while during the 1995–2010 period, when Japan's economy registered only tepid growth, listed firms enjoyed steady productivity improvements. Moreover, from 2010 to 2015, when the economy overall accelerated under "Abenomics," listed firms' productivity growth remained sluggish. This divergence in productivity trends between the economy overall and listed firms likely is due to differences in productivity growth between listed firms and other firms – primarily small and medium-sized firms – linked to their size, such as differences in terms of their speed of internationalization, investment in tangible and intangible assets, increases in part-time employment, and restructuring. This finding suggests that understanding differences in productivity linked to firm size is crucial for understanding productivity dynamics within Japan's economy, which has been characterized by a dual structure since the Meiji period. Meanwhile, our analysis of productivity dynamics shows that the contribution of the reallocation of resources from listed firms with low TFP to other listed firms to overall TFP growth among listed firms has been small, and that most of the overall TFP growth was due to TFP growth within firms (i.e., the within effect). The exception is the 2010–2015 period, when resource allocation in the nonmanufacturing sector made a substantial positive contribution to TFP growth.