Propagation of Positive Effects of Post-disaster Policies through Supply Chains: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake

本研究は、東日本大震災後によって毀損した資本財の修理や買い換えのために中小企業に交付された「グループ補助金」の効果を分析したものである。補助金を受けた企業への直接効果以外にも、補助金を受けてはいないが補助金を受けた企業とサプライチェーンでつながった企業への間接効果をも推計している。傾向スコア法と分散分析を合わせた手法で推計した結果、グループ補助金には交付された小企業の売上高や雇用を引き上げる効果があったことが確認された。また、補助金を受けていない被災県内の企業でも、補助金を受けた企業のサプライヤーや顧客企業の売上は特に増加していることも見出された。これらの結果は、被災した企業に対する政策のプラスの効果がサプライチェーンを通じて波及していくことを示しており、新しい学術的・政策的なエビデンスを提供している。

This study evaluates the impact of "group subsidies," a policy intervention to repair and reinstall damaged capital goods and facilities of small and medium-sized enterprises after the Great East Japan Earthquake. In addition to their direct effect on firms that received the subsidies, we estimate their indirect effect on firms that did not receive the subsidies but were linked with recipient firms through supply chains. Employing a propensity-score-matching and analysis-of-variance approach, we find a positive effect of the subsidies on post-disaster sales and employment of small recipient firms. We also find a positive indirect effect of the group subsidies on firms in disaster-hit prefectures that did not receive any group subsidy but were linked through supply chains with a recipient firm. Our results indicate the propagation of post-disaster policy effects through supply chains, which are often ignored in the academic literature and policy-making arena.

Published: Kashiwagi, Yuka, and Yasuyuki Todo, 2021. "Propagation of positive effects of post – disaster policies through supply chains," Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. 39(2), 348-364.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/coep.12510