Lack of Successors, Firm Default, and the Performance of Small Businesses

本論文は、経営者が高齢（60歳以上）である中小企業に焦点を当て、後継者の有無が企業活動に与える影響を企業レベルのデータを用いて分析した。主な結果は以下の3点である。第一に、規模が小さい、企業年齢が若い、負債比率が高い、成長率が低い中小企業において、後継者がいない傾向がある。第二に、傾向スコアマッチングにより分析した結果、後継者がいない企業は将来、デフォルトもしくは退出する可能性が高く、この傾向は2009年の金融危機時により顕著である。また、後継者がいない企業の退出およびデフォルト確率が高いことから、後継者がいない企業の借入金変化率が低い傾向がある。第三に、売上高変化率で測った企業パフォーマンスは後継者がいない企業において低い傾向がある。

We investigate the effects of the lack of successors on small businesses with an elderly manager. Using firm-level data from Japan, which is a country with an ageing population, we find the following results.

First, smaller, younger, highly leveraged, and non-growing firms are likely to have no successor. Second, firms with an elderly manager are more likely to exit and default if they have no successors, and this was particularly the case during the period of the global financial crisis around 2009. This result suggests that these firms have less incentive to repay debts because they are not going concerns. As a result of the high probability of default and exit, the annual rate of change in bank borrowing is low if firms with an elderly manager have no successor. Third, using the propensity score matching method, we find that sales growth for firms with no successor is lower than that for other firms.

Published: Tsuruta, Daisuke, 2021. "Lack of successors, firm default, and the performance of small businesses," Japan and the World Economy, Vol. 57, 101051.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0922142520300517?via%3Dihub