Evaluating the Economic Response to Japan's Earthquake

本稿は1995年の阪神・淡路大震災と東日本大震災を比較する。阪神・淡路大震災と比べて東日本大震災は工業生産への影響が深刻で長期的であった。このうち、財政支出や個人消費の差によるものはほとんどなかった。しかしながら、2つの震災後のエネルギー供給においては相当な差異があることがわかった。エネルギー供給量の大幅かつ継続的な落ち込みは、部品などの供給途絶の状況を悪化させたとみられ、また、今後長期にわたって復興を遅らせるかもしれない。また、日本が化石燃料への依存を高めれば、大気汚染の悪化による死亡の増加や疾病率の上昇につながる可能性を示す根拠を提示する。以上の結果は、日本が今後、脱原発を進める上で直面する困難を浮き彫りにしている。

This paper compares the 1995 Kobe earthquake with the more recent one in Tohoku. The impact of the recent earthquake on industrial production was much larger and long-lasting than that of the 1995 earthquake. We find that very little of this can be explained by differences in government expenditures or private consumption. However, we find very substantial differences in energy production in the wake of the two earthquakes. The substantial and persistent drop in energy output is likely to have exacerbated supply disruptions and may continue to slow the pace of recovery. Moreover, we provide some evidence that Japan's increasing reliance on fossil fuel sources of energy is likely to result in a large number of deaths and increases in morbidity due to increased air pollution. These results highlight the difficulties that Japan is likely to face in its move away from nuclear power.