RIETI Report June 13, 2025

We Must Review the Effects of Policy Measures to Counter Shrinkage of the Child Population and to Empower Women

Dear Readers,

Welcome to RIETI Report. This bi-weekly newsletter will keep you updated with the recent columns, event information and research results by RIETI fellows and other leading economists in Japan and around the world.

In this edition, we are featuring topics related to the escalating population crisis. In 2024, Japan experienced a record drop in population, despite a spectrum of government initiatives. In her latest column, RIETI Faculty Fellow Professor Ayako Kondo calls for a critical review of the effectiveness of measures aimed at addressing the decline in the child population and promoting women’s empowerment. She underscores data-driven, objective analysis to better inform future policymaking and help turn the tide.

We hope you will enjoy it. If you have any feedback, we would love to hear from you (news-info@rieti.go.jp).
Editors of RIETI Report (Facebook: @en.RIETI / X: @RIETIenglish / URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/)

This month's featured article

We Must Review the Effects of Policy Measures to Counter Shrinkage of the Child Population and to Empower Women

KONDO AyakoFaculty Fellow, RIETI

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To read the full text:
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/a01_0782.html
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Since the late 2010s, the total fertility rate (the average number of children a woman gives birth to during her lifetime) has started to decline again, fueling a sense of crisis over the shrinking population of children. Furthermore, as a result of the population decline, it is becoming more and more important to make efficient use of the labor provided by the working-age generations, including married women. These are in no way new challenges: over the past several decades, various policy measures have been discussed and implemented, including providing support for reconciling childcare with work, and assistance for childbearing families. However, until now, the effects of those policy measures have not been sufficiently reviewed.

A RIETI project "Evaluation of the Effects of Institutional and Environmental Factors on Family Formation, Parental Labor Market Performance and Children's Academic Performance" has conducted research with the aim of providing evidence that can form the basis of better policy planning with a particular focus on matters such as the family formation of working-age and childbearing generations, the performance of those generations in the labor market, and human capital formation among younger generations and children.

Related Papers

"Parental Earnings Trajectories around Childbirth in Japan: Evidence from local tax records"
FUKAI Taiyo (Gakushuin University) / KONDO Ayako (Faculty Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/25020003.html

"Subtle Completed Fertility Recovery in Cohorts Who Entered the Labor Market during the Deep Recession in Japan"
KONDO Ayako (Faculty Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/24070003.html

"A House for My Family: The impacts of down payment rate on marriage and fertility"
BAI Yuting (Hunan University) / KIM Jun Hyung (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)) / LI Anqi (Jinan University) / MARUYAMA Shiko (University of Osaka) / YANG Zhe (Liaoning University)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/25060005.html

"Balancing family and career: The effect of public childcare on fertility in Japan"
FUKAI Taiyo (Gakushuin University) / TORIYABE Takahiro (Hitotsubashi University)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/25040002.html

"Sustainability of Cities under Population Decline"
MORI Tomoya (Faculty Fellow, RIETI) / OGAWA Miki (Kyoto University)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/25020008.html

Related Articles

"What Can Be Done to Combat the Declining Total Fertility Rate: Stable employment and income should be given top priority"
KITAO Sagiri (Senior Fellow (Specially Appointed), RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/papers/contribution/kitao-sagiri/05.html

"Toward Revival of the Japanese Economy: Technological innovation, rather than demographics, is the key to the future"
YAMAGUCHI Hirohide (Chairman of the Advisory Board, Nikko Research Center), YOSHIKAWA Hiroshi (Faculty Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/papers/contribution/yoshikawa-hiroshi/06.html

"The Low Birthrate and Aging Population in China - A comparison with Japan"
Chi Hung KWAN (Consulting Fellow, RIETI / Senior Fellow, Nomura Institute of Capital Markets Research)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/china/22102701.html

Our Latest Discussion Papers

"The Dual Burdens of Disability and Gender Norms: Understanding disabled women’s fertility in developing countries"
ZHANG Yangyang (Jinan University) / ZHENG Xinye (Renmin University of China) / MARUYAMA Shiko (University of Osaka)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/25060010.html

"Import Competition and Restructuring Strategies: Evidence from Japanese firm-level data"
ITO Tadashi (Gakushuin University) / MATSUURA Toshiyuki (Faculty Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/25060008.html

"Capital Market Conditions and the Value of Corporate Diversification for Japanese Firms"
USHIJIMA Tatsuo (Keio University) / SASAKI Takafumi (Chuo University)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/25060007.html

"The Impact of Firms' GVC Participation on Wages"
URATA Shujiro (Distinguished Senior Fellow (specially appointed), RIETI) / BAEK Youngmin (Tokyo Metropolitan University)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/25060006.html

"A House for My Family: The impacts of down payment rate on marriage and fertility"
BAI Yuting (Hunan University) / KIM Jun Hyung (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)) / LI Anqi (Jinan University) / MARUYAMA Shiko (University of Osaka) / YANG Zhe (Liaoning University)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/25060005.html

"Quantifying Congestion Externalities in Road Networks: A structural estimation approach using stochastic evolutionary model"
FUJISHIMA Shota (Hitotsubashi University) / SAKAI Takara (Institute of Science Tokyo) / TAKAYAMA Yuki (Institute of Science Tokyo)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/25060004.html

"Exchange Rates and Tariffs: Unravelling their impacts on China's ICT exports while accounting for product sophistication"
CHEN Chen (Fuzhou University of International Studies and Trade) / Nimesh SALIKE (International Business School Suzhou) / Willem THORBECKE (Senior Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/25060003.html

"Trade and Multi-product Firms"
Rikard FORSLID (Stockholm University) / OKUBO Toshihiro (Faculty Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/25060002.html

"Ethnicity and Judicial Discrimination: Exploring punitive and sympathetic sentencing mechanisms through a survey experiment in Japan"
IGARASHI Akira (University of Osaka) / MORITA Hatsuru (Tohoku University) / ONO Yoshikuni (Faculty Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/25060001.html

List of Discussion Papers:
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/act_dp.html
List of Upcoming and Past Symposiums:
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/symposium.html
List of Upcoming and Past BBL Seminars:
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/

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