| Author Name | BAI Yuting (Hunan University) / KIM Jun Hyung (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)) / LI Anqi (Jinan University) / MARUYAMA Shiko (University of Osaka) / YANG Zhe (Liaoning University) |
|---|---|
| Creation Date/NO. | June 2025 25-E-056 |
| Research Project | Economic Analysis on the problem of an aging population and a declining birthrate in China and Japan in the COVID-19 pandemic |
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Abstract
Homeownership and childbearing decisions are closely linked for many couples. As buying a home often requires substantial loan amounts, consumer credit conditions may influence fertility. We examine how down payment rate (DPR) policies affect marriage and fertility, exploiting city-by-year variation in DPRs across China from 2008 to 2020. The results show that, while housing prices show no direct effect, higher DPRs significantly reduce the likelihood of first births, particularly among those who are likely to be credit-constrained. We find no effect on first marriage. These findings highlight how housing market policies can shape demographic behavior, especially in the context of high housing prices.
