Impending Changes in the U.S.-China Relationship and Regional Implications

Featured Event Summary

Speaker: Matt POTTINGER (CEO of Garnaut Global / Former Deputy National Security Advisor)

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To read the full text:
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/25021301.html
To watch the video:
Presentation) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uu4uC2D0GdM
Comment, Q&A) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZQekux7nPw
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Following President Trump’s inauguration, Prime Minister Ishiba was the second international leader to visit President Trump—an act that clearly demonstrates and reaffirms the importance of U.S.-Japan relations. The statement jointly issued by the two leaders included a phrase with significant meaning about “a new golden age” in U.S.-Japan relations that upholds a free and open Indo-Pacific as well as peace and prosperity in today’s violent and disorderly world. During the Reagan administration, U.S. Ambassador to Japan Mike Mansfield said that the U.S.-Japan relationship is the most important bilateral relationship in the world, bar none. This is still true today, as reaffirmed in the statement by President Trump and Prime Minister Ishiba.

Three concepts beginning with the letter R are shaping President Trump’s worldview: reciprocity, reindustrialization, and real estate. Reciprocity is an idea mentioned frequently during his first term that will likely become even more prominent. It relates not only to trade relations but also to national security ties between the United States and other countries. The President will probably pursue a tariff approach based on this concept, but it is still unclear what this will look like in practice.

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