Third Country Effects of Trump Tariffs: Which Countries Benefited from Trump's Trade War?

Author Name ITO Tadashi (Gakushuin University)
Creation Date/NO. February 2022 22-E-007
Research Project Studies on Foreign Direct Investment and Multinationals: Impediments, Policy Shocks, and Economic Impacts
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Using monthly US tariff-line trade data, this paper analyzed the third country effects of Trump's trade war against China; more specifically, whether other countries captured the US market at the expense of China. The findings demonstrate that Trump tariffs against China substantially decreased US imports from China, whereas many US import partner countries increased exports to the US at the expense of China. The study also finds that although there was no sign of a decrease in border prices for US imports from China (no terms-of- trade improvement), US imports from other partner countries of Trump listed goods (targeting China) show a decrease in border price.