Overview
The world economy has been hit by the China-US confrontation, the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, the Russia-Ukraine War, high oil prices, exchange rate changes, and other events. These have disrupted economic activity. This projects first investigates how the structure of the Japanese and world economies have changed over the last 20 years. It then examines how the shocks in recent years have impacted firms, industries, and economies throughout the world. Finally, it recommends steps that businesses, governments, and others can take to steer the Japanese and world economies in healthy directions.
The project seeks detailed empirical evidence on how these shocks are impacting firms, industries, and economies. It also considers how Global Value Chains have evolved, and how they can develop in the face of conflicts between the U.S. and China. It looks to the success of East Asia in developing the semiconductor sector to make recommendations for how this sector can evolve in the age of trade wars and friend-shoring. It also considers how inflation and accompanying monetary policy changes are impacting the economy. It seeks the latest evidence on how inflation is evolving and on how countries such as Japan can migrate to a healthy inflationary regime where price increases are accompanied by increases in wages and consumption.
The research also considers why certain Japanese firms have flourished over the last 20 years while others have floundered, how Japan’s place in GVCs has changed, where Japanese firms are comrades and where they are competitors with other firms, and whether there are areas where China and democratic nations can cooperate. The findings from this project can help in the design of trade and other economic policies.
May 8, 2023 - October 31, 2025
（During the research project period, the research activity period is set from May 8, 2023 to April 30, 2025, and the data usage reporting period is set from May 1, 2025 to October 31, 2025.）
Major Research Results
2023
RIETI Discussion Papers
- 24-E-033
"Investigating Japan’s Machinery and Equipment Exports after the Global Financial Crisis" (Willem THORBECKE) - 23-E-071
"Sectoral Evidence on Indonesian Economic Performance after the Pandemic" (Willem THORBECKE) - 23-E-070
"Macroeconomic Shocks and Economic Performance in Malaysia: A sectoral analysis" (Willem THORBECKE) - 23-E-054
"The Impact of Monetary Policy on the U.S. Stock Market since the Pandemic" (Willem THORBECKE)
