THORBECKE, Willem

International Economics, Monetary Economics

• Economic Shocks, the Japanese and World Economies, and Possible Policy Responses (May 8, 2023 - October 31, 2025)
• East Asian Production Networks, Trade, Exchange Rates, and Global Imbalances (January 18, 2021 - June 30, 2023)
• East Asian Production Networks, Trade, Exchange Rates, and Global Imbalances (February 1, 2018 - January 31, 2020)
• East Asian Production Networks, Trade, Exchange Rates, and Global Imbalances (October 14, 2015 - September 30, 2017)
• East Asian Production Networks, Trade, Exchange Rates, and Global Imbalances (October 1, 2013 - September 30, 2015)
• East Asian Production Networks and Global Imbalances (December 27, 2011 - October 1, 2013)
• Promoting East Asian Production Networks, the Unwinding of Global Imbalances, and the Resolution of the Economic Crisis (December 27, 2007 - June 17, 2009)
• The Resolution of Global Imbalances (2006)

1988 Ph.D. University of California, Berkeley
1985-86 Visiting Scholar, Yale University

Senior Fellow, Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry, 2005-;
Senior Research Fellow, Asian Development Bank Institute, 2009-2011;
Associate Professor of Economics (with tenure), George Mason University, 1996-2009; Assistant Professor of Economics, 1988-1996;

Selected papers

• “Impacts of global excess capacity on the health of GFSEC steel industries,” 2024, published at the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity (GFSEC), (with Anthony De Carvalho and Rodrigo Pazos) https://steelforum.org/gfsec-impacts-of-global-excess-capacity.pdf
• “The Impact of Monetary Policy on the U.S. Stock Market since the COVID-19 Pandemic,” International Journal of Financil Studies, 2023, 11(4), 134; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11040134
• "Japanese Economic Performance after the Pandemic: A Sectoral Analysis," J. Risk Financial Management, 2023, 16(5), 267; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16050267
• "The Effect of the Fed's Large-scale Asset Purchases on Inflation Expectations," Southern Economic Journal, forthcoming.
• "Exchange Rates and the Swiss Economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, forthcoming, (with Atsuyuki Kato).
• "Investigating ASEAN's Electronic and Labor-Intensive Exports," Journal of Asian Economics, 55, 2018, 58-70.
• "Rebalancing Trade in East Asia: Evidence from the Electronics Industry," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 53, 2017, 2696-2705.
• "Understanding the Flow of Electronic Parts and Components in East Asia," Korea and the World Economy, 17, 2016, 161-182.
• "Understanding FDI and Production Networks in East Asia," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 30, 2016, 57–71, (with Nimesh Salike).
• "Exchange Rates and Production Networks in Asia: A 21st Century Perspective," International Economic Journal, 30, 2016, 217-230.
• "Understanding Chinese Consumption Goods Imports," Journal of Policy Modeling, 38, 2016, 96-102.
• "China-U.S. Trade: A Global Outlier," Journal of Asian Economics, 40, 2015, 47-58.
• "The Sophistication of East Asian Exports," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 20, 2015, 658-678, (with Hao-Kai Pai).
• "Understanding Japan's Capital Goods Exports," The Japanese Economic Review, 66, 2015, 536–549.
• "Enjoying the Fruits of their Labor: Redirecting Exports to Asian Consumers," Asian Development Review, 32, 2015, 1-20.
• "Measuring the Competitiveness of China's Processed Exports," China & World Economy, 23, 2015, 78-100.
• "The Contribution of the Yen Appreciation since 2007 to the Japanese Economic Debacle," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 31, 2014, 1-15.
• "Investigating China's Disaggregated Processed Exports: Evidence that Both the RMB and Exchange Rates in Supply Chain Countries Matter," The World Economy, 36, 2013, 1245-1260.
• Comment on "Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rates and Export Price Competitiveness: The Case of Japan, China, and Korea," Asian Economic Policy Review, 8, 2013, 325-325
• "Are Chinese Imports Sensitive to Exchange Rate Changes?" China Economic Policy Review, 1, 2012, 1-15, (with Gordon Smith).
• "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Japanese Consumption Exports," Japan and the World Economy, 24, 2012, 64-71, (with Atsuyuki Kato).
• "Investigating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on China's Processed Exports," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 25, 2011, 33-46.
• "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade in East Asia," Journal of International Commerce, Economics, and Policy, 2, 2011, 85-102.
• "How Elastic is East Asian Demand for Consumption Goods?" Review of International Economics, 19, 2011, 950-962
• "An Empirical Analysis of East Asian Computer Exports," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 16, 2011, 644-652.
• "An Empirical Analysis of ASEAN's Labor-intensive Exports," Journal of Asian Economics, 21, 2010, 505-513.
• "How Would an Appreciation of the RMB and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China's Exports?" Review of International Economics, 18, 2010, 95-108, (with Gordon Smith).
• "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on China's Labor-Intensive Manufacturing Exports," Pacific Economic Review, 14, 2009, 389-409, (with Hanjiang Zhang).
• "Monetary Policy Surprises and Long-Term Interest Rates: Choosing between the Inflation-Revelation and Excess Sensitivity Hypotheses," Southern Economic Journal, 75, 2009, 1114-1122, (with Hanjiang Zhang).
• "Reducing Global Imbalances: Perspectives from the United States and from Asia," Fiducie, 17, 2009, 20-23.
• "Global Imbalances, Triangular Trading Patterns, and the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 22, 2008, 503-517.
• "The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Fragmentation in East Asia: Evidence from the Electronics Industry," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 22, 2008, 535-544.
• "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi Affect the U.S. Trade Deficit with China?" The B.E. Journal in Macroeconomics: 6, 2006: No. 3, Article 3.
• "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Bank Lending in Turkey," Applied Financial Economics, 15, 2005, 931-934, (with Ahmet Sengonul).
• "The Effects of Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Shocks on Bank Lending in Indonesia," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 52, 2004, 279-295 (with Iwan Azis).
• "Budget Deficits, Inflation Risk, and Asset Prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, 21, August 2002, 539-553.
• "Did NAFTA Cause a Giant Sucking Sound?," Journal of Labor Research, 23, Fall 2002, 649-660, (with Christian Eigen-Zucchi).
• "A Dual Mandate for the Federal Reserve: The Pursuit of Price Stability and Full Employment," Eastern Economic Journal, 2002: 28: 255-268.
• "Estimating the Effects of Disinflationary Monetary Policy on Minorities," Journal of Policy Modeling, 2001, 23: 51-66.
• "Monetary Policy, Time-Varying Risk, and the Bond Market Debacle of 1994," Journal of Macroeconomics, Winter 2000, 22: 159-174.
• "Thoughts on the NAIRU," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1997, 11: 228-229.
• "On Monetary Policy and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, June 1997, 52: 635-654.