Overview
This project aims to define and establish macro prudential policy though model construction and simulation on big economic data, especially the Credit Risk Database (CRD) financial data of small-to-medium enterprises and trade network data owned by RIETI.
Macroeconomic phenomenon are caused by interaction between multitudes of heterogeneous economic agents, which yields co-movements. Among them are business cycles and chain bankruptcy. Thus, establishment of macro prudential policy required for detection and dealing with economic crisis requires detection of these co-movements and modeling of their dynamics. On the other hand, a number of economic agents such as the firms included in the big economics data, with which Japan is fortunate to possess unlike any other country, exceed a million per year. This leads to unique results which no other country can produce. With this in mind, our project will co-operate with K computer of RIKEN AICS in order to utilize huge computational resources and carry out large calculations unheard of so far.
Through these, this research project will produce an evidence-based quantitative definition of macro prudential policy, through which we will establish monitoring of macro-economic situations, evaluation of policies based on it, and simulation of the economy under various external shocks, thereby yielding policy proposals.
June 30, 2016 - May 31, 2018
Major Research Results
2019
RIETI Discussion Papers
- 19-E-063
"Hierarchical and Circular Flow Structure of the Interfirm Transaction Network in Japan" (KICHIKAWA Yuichi, IINO Takashi, IYETOMI Hiroshi and INOUE Hiroyasu) - 19-E-027
"Topology and Formation of Production Input Interlinkages: Evidence from Japanese microdata" (ARATA Yoshiyuki and Philipp MUNDT)
2018
RIETI Discussion Papers
- 18-E-055
"Analysis of Inflation/Deflation: Clusters of micro prices matter!" (KICHIKAWA Yuichi, AOYAMA Hideaki, FUJIWARA Yoshi, IYETOMI Hiroshi and YOSHIKAWA Hiroshi) - 18-E-045
"Macroprudential Modeling Based on Spin Dynamics in a Supply Chain Network" (IKEDA Yuichi and YOSHIKAWA Hiroshi) - 18-E-040
"Bankruptcy Propagation on a Customer-supplier Network: An empirical analysis in Japan" (Yoshiyuki ARATA) - 18-E-026
"Hierarchical Communities in the Walnut Structure of Japanese Production Networks" (Abhijit CHAKRABORTY, KICHIKAWA Yuichi, IYETOMI Hiroshi, IINO Takashi, INOUE Hiroyasu, FUJIWARA Yoshi and AOYAMA Hideaki)
2017
RIETI Discussion Papers
- 18-E-013
"Firm-level Simulation of Supply Chain Disruption Triggered by Actual and Predicted Earthquakes" (INOUE Hiroyasu and TODO Yasuyuki) - 18-E-011
"How Firms Choose their Partners in the Japanese Supplier-Customer Network? An application of the exponential random graph model" (Hazem KRICHENE, ARATA Yoshiyuki, Abhijit CHAKRABORTY, FUJIWARA Yoshi and INOUE Hiroyasu) - 18-E-007
"Empirical Evidence for Collective Motion of Prices with Macroeconomic Indicators in Japan" (KICHIKAWA Yuichi, IYETOMI Hiroshi, AOYAMA Hideaki and YOSHIKAWA Hiroshi)
