Five candidates competed for the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on October 4, 2025, and Ms. Sanae Takaichi won in a run-off vote. Subsequently, at the extraordinary Diet session convened on October 21, a prime ministerial election was held, and Ms. Takaichi was elected as the 104th Prime Minister of Japan, succeeding Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. This marks the first time in Japan’s 140-year history since the modern cabinet system was established in 1885 that a woman has assumed the premiership.
Japan has long been criticized for its low proportion of women in politics relative to other member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In East Asia, South Korea and Taiwan have elected women to the highest executive office, whereas Japan has never had a woman serve as prime minister. As a result, the media have often discussed Japan’s “backwardness” in the political sphere when it comes to gender equality.
Against this backdrop, Ms. Takaichi’s breaking of the “glass ceiling” to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister has been reported with surprise by the international media. As reflected in the cabinet’s high approval rating immediately after its inauguration, the Takaichi administration also appears to have been received largely positively within Japan.
How much opposition is there to a female Prime Minister?
Why has Japan exhibited such a large gender gap in politics, and why has it been particularly difficult for a woman to become Prime Minister? A survey the author conducted with Japanese voters may be informative in considering the context of this victory. In a 2019 survey, the author’s research team examined the extent to which people hold negative attitudes toward the appointment of a woman as Prime Minister (Endo and Ono 2023).
The survey recruited approximately 3,000 respondents aged 18 and above through an online panel. Quotas were set so that the sample’s composition in terms of gender, age groups, and region of residence would approximate the proportions of the national population. Using a list experiment, we estimated the share and characteristics of respondents who opposed a woman becoming Prime Minister.
The estimates indicate that approximately 10% of respondents opposed a woman serving as Prime Minister, which is a relatively small minority. In a similar experiment the author conducted in the United States in 2016 (Burden, Ono, and Yamada 2017), 13% of American respondents opposed a woman becoming President. Japan’s figure is therefore lower than that of the United States. Moreover, there was no meaningful difference in the level of opposition between male and female respondents.
One particularly noteworthy finding is that opposition was higher among LDP supporters: roughly 20% opposed a female prime minister, about twice the level observed among independents. This suggests that a relatively high barrier may exist for women to assume the LDP presidency. Now that, roughly six years after the survey, the LDP has elected its first female party leader and Prime Minister, a key question going forward is how the distribution of such opposition will change.
Can we expect a role model effect?
Will the emergence of a female Prime Minister help narrow gender gaps in Japanese politics and lead to more female politicians, more female cabinet members, and even more female prime ministers in the future? Japan has already seen women take on high-profile roles, such as party leadership, the speakership of the House of Representatives or the House of Councillors, and cabinet positions. Even so, the appearance of a female Prime Minister as the country’s top political leader could possibly encourage women’s political participation and entry into political careers.
For example, research in the United States has shown that the election of Black mayors reduced anxiety and backlash toward Black politicians, changing white voters’ behavior and sentiments toward Black Americans (Hajnal 2001). Similarly, the emergence of a female Prime Minister could shift voters’ perceptions and affect how they evaluate and accept female politicians.
At the same time, other studies argue that role-model effects are limited (e.g., Broockman 2014; Gilardi 2015, etc.). It will therefore be important to closely monitor whether Ms. Takaichi’s premiership leads to the sustained emergence of more female leaders.
The “glass cliff” perspective
To understand the emergence of a female Prime Minister, it may also be useful to consider the phenomenon known as the “glass cliff.” Prior research suggests that women are more likely to be selected as party leaders when their parties are in decline, for example, after losing seats and performing poorly politically (O’Brien 2015). In other words, women may be asked to take on leadership roles under especially difficult conditions.
The LDP has faced a sharp weakening of its position, losing a significant number of seats in both the 2024 Lower House election and the 2025 Upper House election. The LDP-Komeito coalition has consequently lost its majority in both chambers. It was in this context of weakened party strength and increasingly difficult governance that Ms. Takaichi took office. In that sense, the current situation appears consistent with the pattern highlighted in existing research.
If the rise of Japan’s first female Prime Minister depended largely on contextual factors tied to the LDP’s political struggles, her election may not indicate a broader trend toward increasing women’s leadership within the party. O’Brien (2015) also suggests that female leaders may be more likely than their male counterparts to be replaced when political parties fail to recover. This implies that maintaining strong public support will be critical for Ms. Takaichi to remain in office. Furthermore, if the LDP was motivated to choose Ms. Takaichi as the first female Prime Minister merely as a temporary expedient, women may become less likely to be chosen as party president once the party’s fortunes recover.
Will the emergence of a female Prime Minister advance gender equality in Japanese politics, or will it be remembered as an exceptional episode in a time of crisis? Answering this question will require sustained attention to political developments and to changes in voters’ perceptions over time.
December 17, 2025
>> Original text in Japanese
