RIETI Report April 25, 2025

How Have Japanese Inflationary Expectations Evolved since January 2020: Evidence from the stock market

Dear Readers,

Welcome to RIETI Report. This bi-weekly newsletter will keep you updated with the recent columns, event information and research results by RIETI fellows and other leading economists in Japan and around the world.

In this edition, we are featuring topics related to crisis management and policy responses. RIETI Senior Fellow Willem Thorbecke addresses how inflationary expectations have responded to shocks from a variety of sources, including rising commodity prices, yen depreciations, and BoJ monetary policy. He warns that the government should remain vigilant to whether higher interest rates generate unfavorable debt dynamics.

We hope you will enjoy it. If you have any feedback, we would love to hear from you (news-info@rieti.go.jp).
Editors of RIETI Report (Facebook: @en.RIETI / X: @RIETIenglish / URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/)

This month's featured article

How Have Japanese Inflationary Expectations Evolved since January 2020: Evidence from the stock market

Willem THORBECKESenior fellow, RIETI

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To read the full text:
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/a01_0781.html
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The period since COVID-19 appeared in January 2020 has been labeled the megacrisis period. The pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine War, volatile oil and food prices, the Trump trade war, exchange rate fluctuations, and other factors have buffeted the world economy. How have these factors affected Japanese inflationary expectations?

Rising oil and food prices, a weakening yen and other factors can raise the inflation rate. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has been attempting to increase inflation at least since Haruhiko Kuroda became head of the BoJ in March 2013. In April 2013 the BoJ implemented quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, significantly increasing the monetary base. In January 2016 it instituted negative interest rates and in September 2016 it introduced yield curve control by targeting short and long-term interest rates. The BoJ abandoned negative rates on the uncollateralized overnight call rate in March 2024. It raised its target for overnight interest rates to 0.25 per cent in July 2024 and to 0.5 per cent in January 2025.

Related Papers

"The Impact of Inflation on the U.S. Stock Market after the COVID-19 Pandemic"
Willem THORBECKE (Senior Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/24120021.html

"Reconsidering Supply Chains and Industrial Policy from the Economic Security Perspective"
TODO Yasuyuki (Faculty Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/25020004.html

"Drivers of Post-pandemic Currency Movement: Recurring impacts of sovereign risks and oil prices"
MASUJIMA Yuki (Deloitte Tohmatsu Financial Advisory LLC) / SATO Yuki (Goethe University Frankfurt)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/24040014.html

"Global Risk Factors and Their Impacts on Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Evidence from ASEAN+4 economies"
OGAWA Eiji (Faculty Fellow, RIETI) / LUO Pengfei (Setsunan University)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/24010006.html

Related Articles

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MORIKAWA Masayuki (Distinguished Senior Fellow (specially appointed), RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/papers/contribution/morikawa/27.html

"Prospects and Challenges for the Ishiba Administration: The core issue of achieving sustainable real wage increases"
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https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/papers/contribution/hosono/07.html

Related Event

RIETI-CEPR Symposium "Two Speed Inflation: Implications for policy around the globe"
To read the summary: https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/23031001/summary.html
To watch the video: https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/23031001/handout.html

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https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/25040008.html

List of Discussion Papers:
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/act_dp.html
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https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/symposium.html
List of Upcoming and Past BBL Seminars:
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/

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