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Japan and the Second Trump Administration
Speaker: Tobias S. HARRIS (Founder and Principal, Japan Foresight LLC)
Understanding the "America First" worldview of Donald Trump
Amid the uncertainty surrounding the second Trump administration, as key appointments are still being decided, this moment presents a valuable opportunity for fruitful discussions. What can we expect from the incoming U.S. administration and what does it mean for Japan?
Before thinking about scenarios, it is worthwhile to start by assessing what we know about Trump and his "America First" worldview. This time, we can expect the President-elect to be much more confident as he is backed by people who have years of experience articulating what Trumpism is. Trump enters his second term with a view of America's place in the world that is fundamentally different from any administration since 1945. Therefore, there is the potential for meaningful change in how the United States engages with the world.
In Trump's view of the world, the United States should not pay greater costs than its allies for maintaining international order by preserving international institutions, building multilateral and bilateral security alliances to prevent the outbreak of conflict, promoting global economic integration, and upholding global norms to ensure that the U.S. and its partners can prosper together. While there have been U.S. administrations that have acted unilaterally to advance U.S. interests from a similar mindset, Trump goes further than any of his predecessors. His opposition to the idea of positive sum cooperation is clear, and in his worldview all relations with the world are zero sum, meaning that if other countries gain, then the United States loses. In his view, post-1945 U.S. foreign policy is essentially a series of bad deals allowing especially U.S. allies to take advantage of the United States. Ultimately, he views all interactions as deals that involve transactions and bargaining, and this worldview has been largely consistent.
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