Future Design and Industrial Innovation

Considering current decision-making from the perspective of future generations

How should societal systems be designed and implemented to address long-term challenges that span multiple generations, such as climate change, resource and energy issues, and public finance and infrastructure maintenance and management, in order to ensure a sustainable society? Discussions on this question began in 2012 among researchers from various specialized fields, including me, who joined the "Seven Generations Vision Project," a research group within what was then the Center for Environmental Innovation Design for Sustainability (CEIDS) at Osaka University. The discussions developed and led to the Future Design proposal and relevant research initiatives. At present, relevant research and practices are progressing across Japan and in other countries.

Future Design refers to the design and practice of societal systems that will allow us to pass on a sustainable society to future generations. One of the most effective mechanisms within such systems is the so-called "imaginary future generation (IFG)" that is used to retrospectively examine and evaluate current decision-making from the perspective of future generations that have yet to be born. Economic experiments, field experiments, large-scale questionnaire surveys, and practices have demonstrated that the adoption of IFG is effective in controlling human short-sightedness and in making decisions and building consensus from a long-term perspective that takes into account the interests of future generations. As I described in my previous column, Future Design was first put into practice in 2015 in Yahaba Town, Iwate Prefecture, during discussions by local residents who were considering measures for a regional revitalization plan. In this practice, local residents were divided into two current generation groups and two IFG groups to consider their respective plans for the revitalization of the town. In their final stage of the practice, the current generation and IFG groups paired up to propose their own measures for negotiations and consensus-building. The practice found that the IFG groups gave greater priority to regional resources and strengths than current generation groups in proposing revitalization measures, were more likely to prioritize complex and time-consuming issues, and had higher incentive to implement societal changes.

To read the full text:
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/special/policy-update/118.html

Related articles

"Application of Future Design to Policies: Insights from the practices adopting "Imaginary Future Generations"
HARA Keishiro (Consulting Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/special/policy-update/113.html

"Intergenerational Problems Can Be Overcome"
KOBAYASHI Keiichiro (Program Director and Faculty Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/papers/contribution/kobayashi/83.html

"Artificial Intelligence and Society: Philosophy of Fallibility"
Part 16: System of Justice as an Intergenerational Asset—Time Inconsistency Problem
KOBAYASHI Keiichiro (Faculty Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/users/kobayashi-keiichiro/serial2/en/016.html

"What is an Ideal Election System? System design could be key to resolving intergenerational inequity"
OGURO Kazumasa (Consulting Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/papers/contribution/oguro/21.html

"Conditions for a Breakout from Stagnated Personal Consumption: Redistribution placing emphasis on the working generation"
UNAYAMA Takashi (Faculty Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/papers/contribution/unayama/06.html

Related papers

"Changes in Perception and the Effects of Personal Attributes in Decision-making as Imaginary Future Generations: Evidence from participatory environmental planning"
HARA Keishiro (Consulting Fellow, RIETI) / NAYA Masahiro (Osaka University) / KITAKAJI Yoko (Hiroshima University) / KURODA Masashi (Tokoha University) / NOMAGUCHI Yutaka (Osaka University)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/22050007.html

"Automation and the Disappearance of Routine Work in Japan"
KIKUCHI Shinnosuke (MIT) / FUJIWARA Ippei (Faculty Fellow, RIETI) / SHIROTA Toyoichiro (Aoyama Gakuin University)"
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/23110024.html

"Scars of the Job Market "Ice-Age""
KONDO Ayako (Faculty Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/23060008.html

Our latest discussion papers

"Climate Change−Energy Security Nexus in ASEAN: Quantitative text analysis using energy ministerial meeting statements"
AMBASHI Masahito (Consulting Fellow, RIETI) / IWASAKI Fusanori (Consulting Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/24110005.html

"Market Reaction to News Flows in Supply Chain Networks"
INOUE Hiroyasu (University of Hyogo / RIKEN Center for Computational Science) / TODO Yasuyuki (Faculty Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/24110003.html

[List of discussion papers]
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/act_dp.html
[List of upcoming and past symposiums]
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/symposium.html
[List of upcoming and past BBL seminars]
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/

* To subscribe, please go to SHANON's website.
Subscribe