Research Programs: International Trade and Investment

Microdata Analysis of Economic Coercion, Industrial Policy, and the Semiconductor Industry

Project Leader/Sub-Leader

ZHANG Hongyong

ZHANG Hongyong (Senior Fellow)

Leader

Overview

In recent years, increases in economic coercion and geopolitical risks, together with the strengthening of economic security policies—including export controls—have begun to exert substantial effects on economic activity.

Using a variety of micro-level datasets, this research project empirically analyzes:
(1) the effects of economic coercion and geopolitical risk on trade, investment, supply chains, and firm behavior, as well as firms’ responses; (2) the impacts of industrial policies and subsidies in Japan and China on firm behavior, including capital investment, innovation activities, and supply chain restructuring; and (3) the relationship between semiconductor supply chains and economic security.

The project aims to provide new evidence related to economic coercion, geopolitical risk, industrial policy, and economic security, and to offer policy recommendations that contribute to the design of trade policy, industrial policy, and economic security policy.

June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2028

(During the research project period, the research activity period is set from June 1, 2026, to May 31, 2028, and the data usage reporting period is set from June 1, 2028 to November 30, 2028.)