Policy Research Domains (Major Policy Research Domains) I. Maintaining Economic Dynamism under the Adverse Demographic Conditions of Low Fertility and Aging Population

Macroeconomic and Fiscal Simulation Analysis toward a Sustainable Public Pension System

Project Leader/Sub-Leader


NAKATA Daigo Fellow



2008 - 2010

The Japanese public pension system was revised in 2004, but this did not eliminate the public's skepticism concerning the sustainability of the system. Likewise, there has been no sign of any improvement in the public's faith in other social security systems, such as health and nursing care. One of the reasons for this is, the lack of public confidence in the financial projections for social security finance that are based on simulations of pension finances conducted by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Lack of confidence has been augmented by limited opportunities to verify the Ministry's projections and run additional simulations based on different sets of assumptions. The purpose of this project is to examine the following three points, using an expanded version of the simulation model for pension finance (RIETI model) developed by the project leader:

  • (1) Pension finance simulation analysis based on assumptions that are consistent with a general equilibrium approach;
  • (2) Estimation of the base rate using microdata, and application of the base rate in re-evaluating proposals for the integration of pension systems; and
  • (3) Development of a simulation model for very long-term projections of finances for pensions, health and nursing care.

April 8, 2008 -

Major Research Results