Reexamining the Eventual Extinction of Japan’s Municipalities: What do 40-years of recent data tell us?

As Japan’s population decline accelerates, it has been suggested that a sharp decline in the young female population will lead to the “eventual extinction” of municipalities. However, despite a review of municipal population data over the past 40 years from 1980 to 2020 showing that the female population aged 20-39 has already halved in 879 municipalities, these municipalities have not disappeared as claimed. As 10 years have passed since the discussion of municipalities at risk of extinction was raised in a report published by the Japan Policy Council in 2014, it is necessary to revisit the definition of “extinction” and its side effects on the local economies.

Background

In Japan, where population decline is accelerating, addressing the declining birthrate is an urgent challenge. In 2014, a report published by the Japan Policy Council's Subcommittee on Depopulation Issues pointed out that 896 out of 1799 municipalities were at risk of extinction in the next 30 years to 2040 due to a halving of the female population aged 20–39. Since then, the national and local governments have taken various measures to revitalize rural areas, such as correcting the over-concentration of population and industry in the Greater Tokyo Area, encouraging migration to rural areas, and supporting child-rearing. On April 24, 2024, 10 years after the report, the Population Strategy Council released an updated report on municipalities at risk of extinction based on the latest data.

Considering future prospects and countermeasures against population decline based on data for the past 40 years

Residents of the municipalities that were identified as being at risk of extinction in the latest report of the Population Strategy Council might have felt increasingly anxious about the future when they heard the term "extinction." The first thing to do is not to be overly swayed by future predictions, but to correctly understand the current situation based on past data.

I use the Population Census by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications as long-term time series municipal population data. Specifically, I examine Population Census data for 1980 and 2020 to learn about municipal population trends over the 40 years between 1980 and 2020.

Looking at changes in the female population aged 20-39 by municipality over the 40 years from 1980 to 2020, I find that the female population aged 20-39 had already halved in 879 of the 1,741 municipalities. This number is close to the 896 municipalities that were identified as being at risk of extinction in the 30 years from 2010 to 2040, as pointed out in the 2014 report by the Japan Policy Council.

Whereas the 2014 report predicted that 896 municipalities could disappear due to the halving of the female population in question, almost the same number of municipalities have already experienced the halving of this female population, but these municipalities have not disappeared as claimed. It is necessary to reconsider the validity that the “extinction” is realized only on the basis of the decrease of this particular 20-39-year-old female population.

To read the full text:
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/special/policy-update/114.html

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