Overview
The outlook for world trade is increasingly uncertain due to the tensions created by the conflicts between free trade and protectionism arising among countries. In this project, we develop and apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to quantitatively analyze the impact of the current reorganization of world trade on the Japanese economy. Future scenarios for reorganizing world trade include U.S. tariff policies and each country’s responses to those policies, as well as the expansion of linkages and mutual cooperation through regional trade agreements (RTAs) such as CPTPP and RCEP. In the analysis, various sets of future scenarios are designed to reflect the uncertainty in world trade. A more detailed industry classification is introduced in the development of the CGE model.
September 1, 2025 - February 29, 2028
（During the research project period, the research activity period is set from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2027, and the data usage reporting period is set from September 1, 2027 to February 29, 2028.）
