Research Programs: Regional Economies

Development of Quantitative Framework for Regional Economy Based on the Theory of Economic Agglomeration

Project Leader/Sub-Leader

MORI Tomoya

MORI Tomoya (Faculty Fellow)

Leader

Overview

In this project, we rebuild the theory of economic agglomeration in the context of many-location geography. Depending on the spatial scale of the region in question, we utilize appropriate techniques, such as discrete Fourier transformation for an economy with many cities and potential game theory for business-district formation within a city, to obtain formal results on the generic equilibrium properties.

In numerical analyses, the techniques of applied mathematics such as numerical bifurcation theory and the merit-function approach enable us to conduct systematic simulations and Monte-Carlo sampling of stable equilibria. We then replicate the structural regularities (e.g., a spatial fractal structure associated with power laws for city size distribution) that are observed in different parts of the world as generic properties of the simulated multiple equilibria.

Our theory and numerical methods are applied to the counterfactual analyses and future forecasting using structural and statistical-forecasting models.

We are particularly interested in the impact of introducing the Linear Shinkansen (superconducting-maglev train) and the improvement of remote-communication technology during the COVID-19 pandemic on the growth and decline of individual cities. In statistical forecasting, we attempt to incorporate the structural regularities concerning the size and spatial distribution of cities and their industrial structure to predict the growth and decline of individual cities.

June 7, 2022 - May 31, 2025

(During the research project period, the research activity period is set from June 7, 2022 to November 30, 2024, and the data usage reporting period is set from December 1, 2024 to May 31, 2025.)