RIETI Report June 26, 2026

China's "Economic Security" Growth Model, Implications for the US-China Security Dilemma and Lesson for Other Major Players

Print

Dear Readers,

Welcome to RIETI Report. This bi-weekly newsletter will keep you updated with the recent columns, event information and research results by RIETI fellows and other leading economists in Japan and around the world.

In this edition, we feature topics related to China’s growth model. As China’s economy has evolved, Professor Yeling Tan of the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government highlights a shift toward an “economic security” growth model, in which national security increasingly drives economic policy. In her RIETI BBL Seminar, she examined how this shift is reshaping U.S.-China relations and what it means for global supply chains, including Japan.

We hope you will enjoy it. If you have any feedback, we would love to hear from you (news-info@rieti.go.jp).
Editors of RIETI Report (Facebook: @en.RIETI / X: @RIETIenglish / URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/)

Featured Event

China's "Economic Security" Growth Model, Implications for the US-China Security Dilemma and Lesson for Other Major Players

Yeling TAN (Professor of Public Policy, Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford / Non-resident Senior Fellow, The Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Professor Yeling Tan argues that traditional conceptions of export- or investment-led growth no longer capture the dynamics shaping the Chinese economy. Rather, China has adopted an “economic security” growth model in which national security logic now underpins economic policy. The model has three main components: a dual circulation strategy for rebalancing between external and domestic demand; a domestic industrial strategy premised on self-reliant innovation; and a growing legal and regulatory toolkit for economic counter-coercion designed to respond to perceived acts of foreign interference. Each component generates distinctive distortions when security logic displaces economic logic as the primary driver of policy, and those distortions in turn feed into the channels of misperception and uncertainty that sustain the U.S.-China security dilemma. The analysis concludes with lessons and options for other global supply-chain players, including Japan.

>>>To download full text:
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/26042401.html

Related Articles

Subsidising the supply chain: How China’s industrial policy shapes export competitiveness
CHENG Wenyin (Institute of Developing Economies) / LIANG Tao (Institute of Developing Economies) / MENG Bo (Institute of Developing Economies) / ZHANG Hongyong (Senior Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/v01_0237.html

China’s electronics export juggernaut and lessons for the US
Willem THORBECKE (Senior Fellow, RIETI), CHEN Chen (Associate Professor at China’s Fuzhou University of International Studies and Trade), Nimesh SALIKE (Senior Associate Professor in International Business School Suzhou (IBSS) at Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University (XJTLU))
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/v01_0229.html

The Role of Institutions in China's Economic Development - Inspired by the discussion in Why Nations Fail? - Chi Hung KWAN (Consulting Fellow, RIETI / Senior Fellow, Nomura Institute of Capital Markets Research)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/china/24120901.html

Industrial Policies and International Rules: What industrial policies are permissible and to what extent?
AMBASHI Masahito (Consulting Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/a01_0764.html

Related Papers

Compete or Retreat? Evidence from aid competition between China and Western donor countries
NISHITATENO Shuhei (Research Associate, RIETI) / TODO Yasuyuki (Faculty Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/26050007.html

Industrial Subsidies along Domestic Value Chains and Their Impacts on China’s Exports
CHENG Wenyin (Institute of Developing Economies) / LIANG Tao (Institute of Developing Economies) / MENG Bo (Institute of Developing Economies) / ZHANG Hongyong (Senior Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/25120013.html

The Direct and Indirect Effects of the Belt and Road Initiative on Exports to China
LI Haonan (Waseda University) / TODO Yasuyuki (Faculty Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/25040009.html

Our Latest Discussion Papers

Will Unicorns be Born in Japan? A comparative study of private equity market development and policy reforms
TADOKORO Hajime (Consulting Fellow, RIETI) / HONJO Yuji (Faculty Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/26060008.html

Firms as Intermediaries in Social Policy: Evidence from Japan’s 2005 Employer Mandate for Work-Childcare Support
FUKAI Taiyo (Gakushuin University) / HARA Hiromi (Meiji University)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/26060007.html

RIETI Research Papers List

[Discussion Papers]
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/act_dp.html

* To subscribe, please go to SHANON's website.
Subscribe

Event Information

For a complete list of past and upcoming event information.

Symposiums

Workshops

BBL Seminars

Fellow titles and links in the text are as of the date of publication.

For questions or comments regarding RIETI Report, please contact the editor.

＠
*If the "Send by mailer" button does not work, please copy the address into your email "send to" field and connect the prefix and the suffix of the address with an "@", sending it normally.

RIETI Report is published bi-weekly.