| Author Name | FUKAO Kyoji (Chairman, RIETI) / ARAI Sonoe (RIETI) / ITAKURA Ken (Faculty Fellow, RIETI) / KITAO Sagiri (Faculty Fellow, RIETI) / NAKATA Daigo (Senior Fellow, RIETI) / MAEDA Saeko (THE UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO / Cabinet Office) / MATSUO Takemasa (Consulting Fellow, RIETI) / YOSHINO Akihiro (Consulting Fellow, RIETI) |
|---|---|
| Creation Date/NO. | October 2025 25-J-027 |
| Research Project | East Asian Industrial Productivity |
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Abstract
To make projections on the industrial structure in 2040, we divided the Japanese economy into 100 industries and constructed a macroeconomic model that endogenizes factor and goods prices as well as the industrial structure. Using this model, we examined how the price system and industrial structure in 2040 would be determined under certain assumptions regarding the production structure and the endowments of labor and fixed capital stock, ensuring equilibrium in both factor and goods markets. The model parameters were estimated using the JIP Database 2023 and the GTAP model, and the analysis also took into account the impact of population aging on the savings rate and consumption structure.
