April 17, 2003
The Korean peninsula is already under the influence of China in several spheres---political, economic, social and cultural. Indeed South Korea's rather submissive position vis-a`-vis China, its enemy during the Korean War, contrasts remarkably with the image of possible sudden collapse of the 50-year US-South Korea alliance. But then, this is the reality of South Korea today.
This trend can be detected in the behavior of major South Korean political figures. Since the inauguration of the Roh Administration, these political figures have preferred to visit Beijing before visiting Washington, DC. Without exception, they have called for China's active engagement in solving the Korean peninsula's security problems. For the younger generation in particular, being pro-China is increasingly associated with positive connotations of being proactive and healthily nationalistic. Meanwhile pro-Japanese or pro-American views are considered negative.
In light of the China-friendly mood in South Korea, what role will an increasingly powerful China play? How will China view its communist brother North Korea, branded as a member of the axis of evil by US President Bush? How will China respond to the increasingly frequent requests by South Korean politicians?
As the war in Iraq comes to a close, the expectation is that China will become more involved with the resolution of the North Korean nuclear crisis. Chinese leaders are well aware that American frustrations are reaching their limit with regard to Kim Jong-Il's poor behavior. Indeed, this sentiment was expressed by a Bush administration China hand who was a fellow at a conservative think tank prior to joining the administration. According to this expert, “through various channels, China has already expressed to Washington its willingness to cooperate on the North Korean nuclear issue.” This prediction has since been realized, as is evident in an April 4 article in the Washington Post that noted, "The Chinese government has warned North Korea to stop provoking the United States, backing up the warning by closing an oil pipeline to North Korea for three days in late February." Timed at a moment during which the Iraqi reconstruction plan was emerging as a core issue, it foreshadowed the shift in the media's attention towards North Korea following collapse of the Saddam Hussein regime.
China's official explanation of the oil stoppage was that it was due to technical problems related to the pipeline, but this was most likely a face-saving diplomatic maneuver. An "uncomfortable meeting" between North Korea's secret envoy and Chinese leaders in late February suggests that there was no technical problem at all. North Korean Foreign Minister Bak Nam-Sun and Supreme Peoples Assembly Chairman Kim Young-Nam are also thought to have secretly visited Beijing to request advanced weapons systems as well as stinger missiles in case of a possible war with the US.
Though China has been understanding of North Korean security concerns in the past, having lost one million soldiers for the North Koreans during the Korean War, and despite considerable North Korean efforts at persuasion, China coldly refused the request. Instead China simply reiterated its basic principle of "nonproliferation of nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula." As Jiang Zemin has noted, the more North Korea is pushed, the more it resists. And therefore China took the unconventional route of expressing concern while simultaneously giving advice---directly from Vice Foreign Minister Wang Yi to North Korea.
Since the meeting in February, the Chinese leadership, as officially expressed by the Foreign Ministry, maintains the above position. Both Peking University and World Affairs Magazine have reported the same: "We cannot keep protecting North Korea. It is increasingly become a common understanding among Chinese leaders that North Korea will eventually arm itself with a nuclear weapon. This constitutes a significant threat to China." They have also noted, "North Korea is next on the agenda of the Bush Administration after Iraq. The Bush Administration does not see the Kim regime as a negotiating partner but instead a regime to be removed. As the US places North Korea as a priority, China cannot but help engage the issue more pro-actively."
Hu Jintao, designated as the next General Secretary and President at the tenth National People's Congress, had emphasized the importance of the Chinese role in solving the North Korean issue in the course of his conversation with President Bush on March 16, when the US leader had telephoned to convey his congratulations. The Chinese leadership had finally responded positively to the American request for a multilateral format for negotiations with North Korea. Until then, China's official policy toward the North Korean issue had been to leave it to bilateral talks between the US and North Korea.
That China threatened to close an oil pipeline suggests that China has shifted its position from supporting North Korea's interest in bilateral negotiations with the US to supporting the US's plan of negotiating the North Korean nuclear issue within the context of a multilateral framework. North Korea imports 60 percent of it total energy consumption from China. Though China itself imports 30 percent of its energy needs from other countries, it has been providing energy to North Korea at a very low price. Should China stop its supply of energy, it is estimated that North Korea's economic activities would be paralyzed within a period of six months.
General Secretary Hu's answer to this first diplomatic test was a pro-American response. Yet in this response he also made sure that China would not have to kowtow to Washington's whims. While China agreed on a multilateral framework for the North Korean nuclear development issue, it left certain items such as a US-North Korea Non-aggression Treaty to be discussed in a bilateral US-North Korea context. South Korea too supports China's "partial bilateral negotiation within a multilateral negotiation framework." In summary then, China is taking the US position into consideration as it pressures North Korea--within the Chinese leadership, North Korea is seen as a global, not just regional, issue.
Why has China taken a more pro-US stance? China has seen the US's resolute action against Iraq. President Bush's 48-hour ultimatum to Saddam Hussein on March 17 was also a warning to Kim Jong-Il. This ultimatum sent three messages to the North Korean leader: First, any rogue country or organization that possesses weapons of mass destruction would be considered an enemy of the United States, and thus liable for the weapons' removal. Second, the US would not appease any terrorist organizations, including Saddam Hussein's regime. And third, the US would not hesitate to use military power against threats posed by such regimes or terrorist groups.
The ultimatum has since become more credible after the US's overwhelming military intervention in Iraq, which captured and controlled Baghdad in less than three weeks and proved the critics wrong. North Korea has already been labeled a terrorist nation, given its possession of biological and chemical weapons, never mind its nuclear weapons development. Accordingly, the message of the ultimatum is that North Korea fits the definition of a dangerous enemy state and is hence liable to be a target for destruction. The Chinese for their part understand this situation perfectly well, given that they closely witnessed the manner in which the US set about preparing to attack Iraq despite the strong opposition from US allies France and Germany.
The likely scenario following the Iraq war is that the US will bring the North Korean matter to the United Nations Security Council as a means to stop Kim Jong-Il's plans to develop a nuclear weapon. Officially, China is opposed to the employment of UN sanctions against North Korea. Yet, the Bush administration may have calculated that there would be no ground for China to support North Korea, should the UN Security Council decide to employ economic means to deal with the North Koreans. Originally, China had expressed its opposition to bringing the North Korean matter to the UN, but has since expressed its support following the IAEA's notification to this effect.
China's role and responsibility will become clearer after the scheduled visit of Vice President Cheney to East Asia. Originally scheduled in April, it has since been postponed due to the war in Iraq. Ever since September 11, it is a known fact that US Vice President Dick Cheney has not made a single official overseas visit. It is expected that the main purpose of his Asian trip will be to discuss the North Korean issue with the Chinese government.
Author, Michael Yoo
Research Associate
Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)
Editor-in-Chief, Ichiro Araki
Director of Research
Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)
e-mail: araki-ichiro@rieti.go.jp
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The opinions expressed or implied in this paper are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), or of the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
