The Intertemporal Substitution and Income Effects of a VAT Rate Increase: Evidence from Japan

少子高齢化の進む日本では、消費税の引き上げは避けられない課題である。消費税率の上昇は、物価の予期された上昇を意味するため、時点間の代替行動と所得効果による消費の低下をもたらすと考えられる。時点間の代替行動は、消費の大きな変動を生み、経済の大きな攪乱要因となるため、その影響の大きさを十分に把握する必要がある。本稿では、1997年4月に消費税が3%から5%に変更された際の世帯の支出データにより、消費税の引き上げが消費に与える影響を計測した。その結果、平均的な家計は消費税の引き上げ直前に3万231円多く支出したことが分かった。また、その消費の増加は、耐久財や貯蔵可能財な財・サービスによってもたらされており、異時点間の代替効果の4分の3程度を説明できる。この代替行動により、政府は265億円の税収を失った計算になる。異時点間の代替効果が、大きな消費の変動をもたらしたのに対し、消費税の引き上げがもたらした所得効果は小さく、長期的な影響は小さかった。

One of the biggest political issues in Japan is an increase in the rate of value added tax (VAT). In this paper, we evaluate its impact on household expenditure, using Japan's April 1997 VAT rate increase from three to five percent as a case study. A rate increase induces price hikes, and provided this increase in price levels is anticipated, households should engage in intertemporal substitution of purchases. In addition, if households are not compensated for the rate increase, it has the potential to induce an income effect on household consumption. Based on monthly household expenditure data, we find that households spent ¥30,231 more in the quarter prior to the rate increase than they would have in its absence, while the income effect was negligible. Consistent with theoretical predictions, increased outlays on durable and storable non-durable goods and services were responsible for roughly three-quarters of the observed intertemporal substitution effects. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that the VAT rate increase had no impact on real household spending following its implementation, once we have accounted for intertemporal substitution, which caused a large transitory disturbance in household expenditures.

Published: David Cashin and Takashi Unayama, 2016. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption: Evidence from a VAT Increase in Japan," Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 98(2), pp. 285-297
http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/REST_a_00531#.V4cmAlKCgpF