This month's featured article
Designing a "Policy Mix": RIETI Policy Symposium Preview
<RIETI Featured Fellow> YOSHITOMI Masaru
YOSHITOMI Masaru President, RIETI
Greetings from RIETI
People often shy away from venturing outdoors during the rainy season in Japan, but this is the only time of the year when you can enjoy the vivid "ajisai" (hydrangeas) that blossom stunningly in the rain. Ajisai is native to Japan, and poems about the flower can be found in "Manyoshu" ("Collection of a Myriad Leaves"), an anthology of Japanese verse that was published in the 8th century. Hortensia is an improved breed of ajisai and was imported to England from Japan in the 18th century. In floral language, ajisai signifies a cold heart, caprice, and vivacious femininity. The degree of acid in the soil or its nitrogen content influence the color of the flower, turning it from blue to red and purple, or vice versa. Fujinomori shrine in Kyoto has one of the most beautiful ajisai gardens in Japan and its 3000 radiant blooms look just gorgeous.
RIETI is hosting the Policy Symposium "Resolving New Global and Regional Imbalances in an Era of Asian Integration," on June 17 and 18. And despite being in the midst of the monsoon season, the symposium program is outstanding enough to warrant braving the rain to participate and could also prove a delightful opportunity to enjoy the ajisai along the way. As he prepares for the symposium, RIETI Report took this chance to interview the newly-appointed RIETI President and Chief Research Officer Masaru Yoshitomi regarding the first event that he will be hosting as president. (AK)
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Having received a B.A. in international relations and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Tokyo, Masaru Yoshitomi entered the Japanese government's Economic Planning Agency (EPA) in 1962. In addition to serving in a number of roles at the EPA, Yoshitomi has also held the posts of director of the General Economics Branch of the OECD, vice-chairman of the Long-term Credit Bank Research Institute, visiting executive professor of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and dean of the Asian Development Bank Institute. He has also been a member of the RIETI Subcommittee for the Incorporated Administrative Agency Evaluation Committee of METI since RIETI's inception in 2001, and was a research fellow of the JBIC Institute, Japan Bank for International Cooperation before becoming President and Chief Research Officer of RIETI in April 2004. Recent publications in Japanese include: Reality of the Japanese Economy, Beyond Common Views , 1998, and Reality of the Asian Economy: Miracle, Crisis and Institutional Evolution , 2003. His book from 1977, Essays on the Contemporary Japanese Economy , also in Japanese, was awarded the "Nikkei Prize of Economics Books" by Nihon Keizai Shimbun .
For a detailed biography, please click here
To read a transcript of the dinner speech - "Applying key lessons from the Asian Crisis to the Chinese economy" - that President Yoshitomi gave at the "Asia Network of Economic Policy Research (ANEPR) 2003-2004: Asia in Search of a New Order" symposium in January 2004, please click here
Designing a "Policy Mix": RIETI Policy Symposium Preview
RIETI Report: The RIETI Policy Symposium "Resolving New Global and Regional Imbalances in an Era of Asian Integration" will be held on June 17 and 18 at Keidanren Hall in Tokyo. Could you give us your perspectives on issues to be addressed at the symposium?
Yoshitomi: I would like to first point to the presence of the huge current account deficit of the United States, as an underlying problem, and the simultaneous rise in trade surpluses and rapid accumulation of foreign reserves of East Asian economies on the other side of the coin. The question is whether these phenomena are sustainable. Concerns are being raised as to just how soon we will see a drastic depreciation of the U.S. dollar, an inevitable move to adjust the huge U.S. deficit. Such a fall in the value of the U.S. dollar would result in the dramatic appreciation of the yen and other Asian currencies. Would this trigger an East Asia-wide recession and worsen deflation? If so, how should we respond?
Secondly, the presence of China and other Asian economies in the global economy is far greater today than it was in the 1980s when the Plaza Accord was concluded and the Japanese yen rose sharply. Today, we are witnessing the emergence of an Asia-wide production network with massive direct investment from Japan and newly industrialized economies (NIEs) flowing into China. More specifically, China imports intermediate and capital goods - high-technology products - from Japan and NIEs, has them processed at low cost by cheap labor, and then exports the finished products to industrialized countries, in particular the U.S. As such, global triangular trade relationships are now being formed, with China fast expanding its processing trade. From certain perspectives, this triangular trade pattern can be perceived as an indication that East Asia as a whole - including Japan - is becoming the factory of the world. This is a distinctive characteristic of today's trade, which was not observable 20 years ago. But then, is such a triangular trade pattern sustainable?
Thirdly, there is the question of what kinds of currency adjustments and foreign exchange regime are desirable for East Asia in order to promote further economic integration in Asia. What would be the impact of exchange rate changes on East Asia, as the factory of the world? This boils down to the question of whether the current Asian exchange rate regime, which is primarily under the fixed rate system, should be maintained or replaced by the floating exchange rate regime or some sort of intermediate system.
These three issues are research themes that are both topical and important from a policy point of view. The forthcoming symposium is an innovative attempt to address all these issues in a comprehensive manner.
RIETI Report: Could you tell us about the specific contents of the symposium?
Yoshitomi: As announced in the program for the symposium, in Session 1, entitled "Determinants of the sustainability of the U.S. external deficit and the right policy mixes for adjustments," we will examine the sustainability of the U.S. external deficit. In Session 2, "The triangular trade pattern and its implications for global and regional imbalances," we will discuss the aforementioned global triangular trade relationships. Session 3, entitled "Competition and collaboration among economic agglomerations and fragmentation of corporate functions," will focus on the business phenomena that are occurring underneath the development of triangular trade relationships. Specifically, we will be shedding light on the actual state of supply chains as seen in the formation of industrial clusters. In Session 4, "Designing appropriate adjustment policies in Asia," we will review various options with regard to economic, monetary and fiscal policies and structural reform measures, exploring how Asian economies can coordinate policies to cope better with the expected adjustment of foreign exchange rates. In Session 5, "Optimal exchange rate regime for Asia," we will examine, based on our discussions in the preceding sessions, what kind of policy mix would be desirable for Asia to alleviate the impact of adjustment burdens in resolving the U.S. deficits so as to facilitate further development and integration of Asian economies. In this session, we would also like to put our ideas together into a set of policy proposals. Finally, in Session 6, we will sum up by holding a panel discussion on the theme of "Searching for optimal adjustment policies both in the U.S. and Asia."
When I say "policy mix," I am referring to a combination of policies in different fields, namely, policies vis-a-vis the magnitude of foreign exchange adjustments, the degree of reliance on fiscal policy, monetary policy, and structural reform measures. And the mix must be just right because a wrong combination of policies could result in an economic recession and a rise in unemployment. Thus, the ultimate goal of the forthcoming symposium is to make policy proposals for the realization of an appropriate policy mix.
An international symposium with brainstorming discussions is what we are aiming for. I do hope that through our discussions at the symposium we will be able to home in on various issues, be clear-cut in identifying the core problems, and put forward policy proposals which are precise and to-the-point. I say this in reflection of our experience with the Plaza Accord two decades ago. At that time, no policy mix had been designed beforehand, which fact is blamed for the string of confusions that ensued the signing of the accord. If we, RIETI, can demonstrate intellectual leadership and present an optimal policy mix through our symposium, it would be a major contribution.
RIETI Report: What would you say are the distinctive features of the symposium?
Yoshitomi: Participant profile is quite distinctive. Researchers coming together for this symposium from all over the world are the leading experts in their respective fields. For instance, we will be hearing a presentation by Ms. Ann-Marie Brook, an economist at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, on the findings from a simulation analysis of the impacts of U.S. deficit adjustments. Then, based on her presentation, the designated discussant will provide their comments to further deepen the debate.
There will also be those who are at the forefront of policymaking. For instance, we will be joined by Mr. Albert Keidel, deputy director of the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of East Asian Nations. Mr. Keidel, who is in charge of policy vis-a-vis the Renminbi at the Treasury Department, is also a member of a U.S.-China study group on China's foreign exchange system. Meanwhile, I am expecting that Hitotsubashi University's Professor Haruhiko KURODA, who is formally Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, will share his first-hand view on Japan's experience in the 1980s.
In the run-up to the symposium, we have been quite energetic in organizing workshops. And we plan to hold a series of international conferences like this in the future. So, the forthcoming symposium is no special event, really. Rather, it should be viewed as an extension of our regular research activities.
RIETI Report: How would you characterize this symposium as an occasion to send a message to the rest of Asia
Yoshitomi: Ever since the signing of the Plaza Accord in 1985, Japan has gone through sudden appreciations of the yen as a repercussion of U.S. deficit adjustments. Other Asian countries, however, will be facing a drastic weakening of the U.S. dollar - probably comparable to what we saw in the 1980s - for the first time since emerging as NIEs. Many policymakers and economists in Asia believe that the Japanese economy was weakened by the appreciation of the yen subsequent to the Plaza Accord. In reality, however, Japan had robust economic growth and an asset bubble in the latter half of the 1980s, a period in which the yen rose sharply. Then, in the 1990s, Japan plunged into long-term economic stagnation. In the forthcoming symposium, we will be considering how we can deal with the expected fall of the U.S. dollar against Asian currencies, deriving lessons from Japan's experience in the 1980s and afterward. In this sense, I believe that with this symposium we can make a significant intellectual contribution to policymaking.
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