Population Decline and Regional Disappearance: Policy Prescriptions for Managing Smart Shrinkage
- Story 7. Shrinking Japan: The future of regional and metropolitan Japan, and the path to sustainability -

Building on the analyses in the preceding stories, this study examines the long-run prospects for regional cities, regional economies, and the Tokyo metropolitan area under population decline, and discusses the challenges related to sustainability. Based on long-term projections of household numbers, age composition, and internal migration under the low-fertility, medium-mortality scenario, we show that the decline of regional cities and continued concentration into the Tokyo area are inevitable equilibrium outcomes. We discuss the social challenges that arise in this process, including the growth of elderly households, interregional labor reallocation, and structural changes in real estate markets.