| Author Name | MORI Tomoya (Faculty Fellow, RIETI) |
|---|---|
| Creation Date/NO. | May 2026 26-P-008 |
| Research Project | Sustainability of Cities and Regions in Japan under Population Decline |
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Abstract
This study presents the results of projections of the future spatial structure of Japanese cities under population decline, using the predictive model described in Story 5. Among the population decline scenarios in the National Institute of Population and Social Security Researchs 2023 projections, we adopt the low-fertility, medium-mortality scenario—currently considered the most realistic—and incorporate the concentration trend toward large cities and the dispersion trend within cities that has been observed over the past 50 years. We project the evolution of the city system through 2200, with a particular focus on changes in the geographic distribution of cities.
