Voter Switching and Policy Preferences: Evidence from Japan's 2025-2026 elections

This study examines vote switching between Japan’s July 2025 House of Councillors and February 2026 House of Representatives elections. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a major defeat in 2025, then achieved a landslide victory in 2026 under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who adopted a moderate but firmly immigration-restrictive platform. Based on a survey that collected 19,945 responses, we analyzed a sub-sample of 14,431 valid respondents using multinomial logit and Heckman selection probit models to examine party choice and vote switching. Major findings are as follows: (1) opposition to Trump-style tariffs is universal across parties, while support for immigration restriction divides voters sharply. (2) voters who switched to the LDP distrusted unverified foreigners but accepted workplace-integrated ones. (3) risk-averse voters who had supported right-wing opposition parties were especially likely to switch to the LDP. However, it should be noted that the estimation results may be biased, as the study does not account for views on topics such as the Constitution or nuclear power.