| Author Name | XIE Mingjia (Liaoning University) / YIN Ting (Fellow (Specially Appointed), RIETI) / USUI Emiko (Hitotsubashi University) / ZHANG Yi (Central University of Finance and Economics) |
|---|---|
| Creation Date/NO. | October 2025 25-E-102 |
| Research Project | Economic Analysis on the problem of an aging population and a declining birthrate in China and Japan in the COVID-19 pandemic |
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Abstract
We evaluate the health effects of hypothetical retirement policy changes, accounting for varied individual responses to policy changes and the heterogeneous health impacts of retirement. Using a Policy Relevant Treatment Effect (PRTE) framework with Japanese data, we find a policy’s net average health impact depends critically on its scale. Policies which cause marginal downward shifts in retirement rate improve average population health. Conversely, policies which induce large, substantial shifts lead to a net health decline as it faces individuals who stand to gain from retiring to continue working. Our findings highlight the importance of “selection on gains” and suggest that policymakers should favor incremental incentives over broad mandates.
