| Author Name | FUKAO Kyoji (Chairman, RIETI) / MATSUO Takemasa (Consulting Fellow, RIETI) / YOSHINO Akihiro (Consulting Fellow, RIETI) |
|---|---|
| Creation Date/NO. | October 2025 25-J-026 |
| Research Project | East Asian Industrial Productivity |
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Abstract
In this paper, we estimate how AI and robotics technologies will substitute for human-centered jobs and how the technologies will affect Japan’s industrial and employment structures in 2040. First, drawing primarily on Acemoglu’s series of papers, we constructed a theoretical model of firm production structures and occupation-specific labor demand. In doing so, we also took into account the reduction in AI and robotics prices resulting from technological innovation, as well as the relationship between firm size and technology adoption. Next, based on the industry-level estimates of the Automation Risk Index (ARI) for 2024, 2030, and 2040 provided by Fukao, Ikeuchi, Nagatani, Pergini, and Pompei (2025), we projected the industrial and employment structures in 2040.
