Estimates on the Size of the Electronic Cigarette Market in Japan

Author Name OGURO Kazumasa (Consulting Fellow, RIETI) / KAWASAKI Masaki (The Japan Research Institute)
Creation Date/NO. January 2023 23-J-005
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This article estimates the size of the electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) market in Japan using a 10,000-person panel data (questionnaire data obtained from the LINE Research survey system) and other sources. First, the analysis confirmed the possibility that the market size for nicotine-containing e-cigarette or Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS) is between 32.2 billion yen and 33.5 billion yen. The results of this estimation also showed that despite the fact that ENDS are not currently approved in Japan, foreign-made ENDS are distributed and used in Japan through private import and other means. In addition, if the Tobacco Business Act were revised to impose a “tobacco tax, etc.” on ENDS, it was found that an increase in tax revenues of approximately 16.9 to 17.6 billion yen could be obtained. In any case, it is possible for individuals to obtain overseas’ manufactured ENDS products via the Internet, etc., despite the lack of regulatory oversight, and further consideration should be given to how they should be regulated.