Epidemic and Economic Consequences of Voluntary and Request-based Lockdowns in Japan

Author Name HOSONO Kaoru (Faculty Fellow, RIETI)
Creation Date/NO. February 2021 21-E-009
Research Project Capital Accumulation and Productivity Growth after the COVID-19 Crisis
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I examine the epidemiological and economic effects of two types of lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: a voluntary lockdown by which people voluntarily stay at home in response to the risk of infection, and a request-based lockdown by which the government requests that people stay at home without legal enforcements. I use empirical evidence on these two types of lockdowns to extend an epidemiological and economic model: the SIR-Macro model. I calibrate this extended model to Japanese data and conduct some numerical experiments. The results show that the interaction of these two types of lockdowns plays an important role in the low share of infectious individuals and the large decrease in consumption in Japan. Moreover, the welfare gains of a request-based lockdown greatly differ across individuals and can be negative for some when a voluntary lockdown exists.

Published: Hosono, Kaoru, 2021. "Epidemic and economic consequences of voluntary and request-based lockdowns in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Volume 61, 101147.