Moving Out of China? Evidence from Japanese Multinational Firms

Author Name Changyuan LUO (Fudan University) / Chunxiao SI (Fudan University) / ZHANG Hongyong (Senior Fellow, RIETI)
Creation Date/NO. October 2020 20-E-077
Research Project Studies on the Impact of Uncertainty and Structural Change in Overseas Markets on Japanese Firms
Download / Links

First draft: October 2020
Revised: March 2022


This study examines the firm-level and macroeconomic factors affecting foreign divestment in China. It employs a unique dataset of Japanese multinational enterprises (MNEs) from 1995 to 2016. Based on survival analysis, we find that affiliate size, profitability, labor productivity, and export proportion to Japan are negatively associated with MNEs' divestment probability. Moreover, the probability of divestment increases with the size of the parent firm and its experience in the Chinese market but decreases with business relatedness between affiliate and parent firms, industrial minimum effective scale, and market concentration. We further examine the determinants of different divestment modes, and post-divestment investment adjustment across regions and industries. Finally, we find that the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands conflict and an increase in the minimum wage significantly raise the probability of Japanese divestment.

Published: Luo, Changyuan, Chunxiao Si, and Hongyong Zhang, 2022. "Moving out of China? Evidence from Japanese multinational firms," Economic Modelling, Volume 110 (2022), 105826.