Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from survey data

Author Name MORIKAWA Masayuki (Vice Chairman & Vice President, RIETI)
Creation Date/NO. February 2016 16-P-005
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This paper, using data from an original survey covering both public and private companies in Japan, presents evidence on the uncertainties over economic policies, their effects on managerial decisions, and the companies' evaluations for the numerical targets related to economic policies. This paper is an extension of Morikawa (2013), but the survey greatly expands its coverage including private companies and adds new questionnaires. The results indicate that Japanese companies perceive uncertainty over the future course of certain economic policies, such as the social security system, government budget, and international trade policy. Policy uncertainties have substantial effects on managerial decisions, especially on equipment investment and hiring of regular employees. Medium- to long-term numerical targets related to the government's economic policies are perceived to be difficult to achieve.

The English version of this paper is 16-P-008.

Forthcoming: Morikawa, Masayuki. "How Uncertain Are Economic Policies? New Evidence from a Firm Survey," Economic Analysis and Policy.