Lessons from Japan's Secular Stagnation

Although Japan had largely resolved the problem of non-performing loans by the early 2000s, economic growth hardly accelerated, resulting in the "two lost decades." This paper examines the underlying reasons from a long-term and structural perspective using a KLEMS-type database and micro-level data. Major issues examined include the chronic lack of domestic demand since the mid-1970s caused by the long-run decline in capital formation through the slowdown in the growth of the working age population as well as the resulting current account surplus and yen appreciation, and supply-side issues such as slow total factor productivity (TFP) growth due to Japan's low information and communications technology (ICT) investment.