China-U.S. Trade: A global outlier

Author Name THORBECKE, Willem  (Senior Fellow, RIETI)
Creation Date/NO. July 2014 14-E-039
Research Project East Asian Production Networks, Trade, Exchange Rates, and Global Imbalances
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Notes Revised: May 2015


This paper investigates whether China's exports to the United States are an outlier. Gravity model results indicate that these exports have exceeded their predicted values by more than $100 billion in every year since 2005, and that both processed exports produced within regional value chains and ordinary exports produced using domestic inputs far exceed their predicted values. Exports of parts and components from South Korea and Taiwan, the two leading supply chain economies, to China are also outliers. Cointegration evidence indicates that exchange rates throughout the supply chain impact China's exports. While the Chinese renminbi has appreciated since 2005, exchange rates in supply chain countries have depreciated and contributed to China's outsized exports to the United States.