What Type of Policy Uncertainty Matters for Business?

Author Name MORIKAWA Masayuki (Vice Chairman & Vice President, RIETI)
Creation Date/NO. September 2013 13-E-076
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This paper uses data from an original survey of Japanese listed companies to present empirical findings concerning subjective uncertainties over economic policies and their effects on business operations. Companies perceive uncertainty over the future course of certain economic policies, such as an international trade policy and the social security system. Uncertainty regarding the tax system, trade policy, and environmental policy can have substantial effects on the managerial decisions, especially on equipment investment and overseas activities. Among non-manufacturing companies, uncertainty regarding the social security system and labor market regulations affects employee hiring and organizational restructuring. To achieve economic growth by promoting future-oriented investment, it is essential to improve the predictability of fundamental economic policies and institutions.

This is the English version of the Japanese Discussion Paper (13-J-043) with some additional information and changes

Published: Morikawa, Masayuki, 2016. "What types of policy uncertainties matter for business?" Pacific Economic Review, Vol. 21(5), pp. 527-540