Impacts of Japanese FTAs/EPAs: Post Evaluation from the Initial Data

This paper attempted to assess impacts of existing Japanese EPAs in their initial years and to draw policy implications for possible future FTAs/EPAs. Our gravity model estimations as well as detailed analysis on trade and actual tariff reduction by EPAs demonstrated that the Japan-Singapore EPA has almost no direct impact on trade since actual reduction of tariffs by the EPA is quite limited. On the other hand, our empirical investigation confirmed a certain degree of positive impact of the Japan-Mexico EPA on trade, particularly on the export side, and investment. Several important outcomes of the EPA beyond tariff removal are also revealed. Discussion on future designs of FTAs/EPAs includes issues on some possible abuse of phasing out tariffs, desirable structure of EPA tariffs, effective utilization of EPAs beyond trade liberalization, and the relationship with multilateral trade liberalization.