Economic Security in a World of Disruptive Power

The expectation for a second Trump administration was that it would largely mirror the first—Trade disputes, Tariff battles, and Strategic competition with China. However, what is unfolding is not just disruption but a deeper shift in the global order. This time, it is not simply about transactional diplomacy or economic pressure; it is about a fundamental realignment—one that challenges longstanding alliances, weakens multilateral institutions, and accelerates geopolitical fragmentation.
The international system built on U.S. leadership, economic interdependence, and security commitments is unravelling. The prospect of the United States distancing itself from NATO, questioning global trade frameworks, and aligning with nationalist and populist forces worldwide could mark the end of an era. This raises urgent questions: Who fills the void? Can the existing order adapt? One possible response is the formation of Coalitions of the willing. A climate club within the G20, even without full U.S. participation, could still function effectively. Regional alliances and issue-based partnerships may provide resilience in an increasingly fragmented landscape.
For Europe, this shift demands strategic autonomy—both in security and economic policy. It must reinforce its defense capabilities, counter economic coercion, and safeguard unity to sustain prosperity and competitiveness. The reform agendas proposed by Draghi and Letta provide a framework for boosting productivity and closing the gap with the United States. While the European Commission has embraced these priorities, implementation remains the real challenge.