Energy Supply and Demand Analysis Considering Decarbonization and Energy Security

This paper quantitatively analyzes long-term energy supply-demand structures together with energy technology adoption aimed at achieving carbon neutrality and energy security, using an optimization-based energy supply-demand model. Amid rising geopolitical risks, fluctuations in energy prices, and decarbonization, establishing an energy system that can achieve both carbon reductions and a stable energy supply has become an important challenge. In this paper, long-term energy supply and demand through 2050 are analyzed under various CO₂ emissions constraints to assess their impacts on primary energy supply mix, power generation mix, electricity demand, energy self-sufficiency, and marginal CO₂ abatement costs. The results indicate that, as CO₂ emission constraints become more stringent, the deployment of renewable energy and electrification both accelerate, accompanied by an increase in energy self-sufficiency rate. These findings suggest that decarbonization can contribute not only to CO₂ emissions reductions but also to strengthening energy security by reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels. Meanwhile, as electrification progresses and the role of electricity in the energy system becomes increasingly important, securing sufficient flexibility and balancing resources to ensure a stable electricity supply will become even more critical, particularly under large-scale integration of renewable energy. The analysis also indicates that tighter CO₂ emission constraints may lead to both higher marginal CO₂ abatement costs and total energy system costs. Overall, these results suggest that decarbonization, energy security, and economic efficiency should be addressed as interrelated challenges, and that policy design should balance these objectives.