| Author Name | INOSE Junya (Toyo University) |
|---|---|
| Creation Date/NO. | August 2026 26-E-062 |
| Research Project | Heterogeneity of Economic Agents and Challenges for the Japanese Economy |
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Abstract
An inflation regime can shift through Phillips-curve slopes, shock variances, or the nominal reference levels that guide price and wage setting. This paper makes the three margins compete within a nested Bayesian New Keynesian DSGE model with separate price and wage anchors. For Japan in 2013 and 2022 and the Volcker disinflation in the U.S. in 1979, allowing both anchors and variances to switch delivers the best fit, whereas allowing either slope to switch does not improve model performance. The anchors move differently across episodes. Only the price anchor shifts in 2013; both move roughly one for one in 2022; and the wage anchor falls about twice as far as the price anchor in 1979. The estimated wage anchors also align with wage-setting data excluded from estimation.
