Firm Responses to Economic Security: Evidence from a survey of Japanese manufacturing firms

This paper studies how rising economic-security concerns shape firms’ global operations—imports, exports, and foreign direct investment. We combine an original survey targeting Japanese manufacturing firms with firm-level data to identify correlates of three responses: (i) supplier switching in foreign sourcing, (ii) export-control adjustments (tightened compliance, destination changes, or suspension), and (iii) revisions to outward and inward investment (cancellation, equity reduction, or withdrawal/divestment). Research and development-intensive firms, firms handling export-controlled products, and firms with greater dependence on China were more likely to engage in these responses. Yet determinants differ across domains. Supplier switching is more likely for upstream firms with higher North American export exposure, suggesting demand-side pressures propagate upstream. Export-control responses depend strongly on implementation capacity, proxied by the scale of international business functions and use of government information support. Investment-related revisions are rare but appear when technological/regulatory risks overlap with geopolitical risks in today’s policy environment.