EU’s Export Embargoes on Russia: Have they been effective?

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the EU’s post-2022 export embargoes on goods with potential military applications against Russia. Using HS6-level UN Comtrade data for 2019–2024, I first estimate gravity-style specifications and event-study designs that confirm a sharp and immediate contraction in direct EU exports of embargoed goods to Russia. I then propose a product-level identification strategy that links potential transit country’s imports of an HS6 product from the EU to its exports of the same product to Russia in the post-2022 period. The results indicate that (i) EU export controls substantially reduced direct shipments, (ii) some Caspian littoral countries and major non-sanctioning suppliers—China, India, and Turkey—expanded exports of comparable goods to Russia, and (iii) there is nuanced but limited evidence of roundabout trade, whereby sanctioned goods were exported from the EU to these Russia-friendly countries and then re-exported to Russia. These findings imply that the effectiveness of export embargoes hinges not only on the scope of the listed items but also on enforcement that targets high-risk transit routes and substitute suppliers.