| Author Name | ASAKAWA Shinsuke (Saga University) / ABE Mayuko (Japan Center for Economic Research) / OHTAKE Fumio (Faculty Fellow, RIETI) / SANO Shinpei (Kobe University) / NAKATA Kazuko (Setsunan University) |
|---|---|
| Creation Date/NO. | April 2026 26-E-026 |
| Research Project | Comprehensive Study to Promote Evidence-Based Policy Making (EBPM) in Japan |
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Abstract
Using administrative data from Amagasaki City (2019–2023), this study identified the factors associated with long-term absenteeism among elementary and junior high school students. Ordinary least square regressions revealed that students with low mathematics scores and those from single-parent or welfare-recipient households faced a higher risk of long-term absenteeism. Regarding non-cognitive skills, lower levels of extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness and emotional stability, and higher openness correlated with increased absenteeism. Notably, the probability of long-term absence remains substantially higher in 2023 than in 2019, even after controlling these characteristics. Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition shows that the increase in absenteeism during the COVID-19 pandemic was not driven by changes in student attributes but by the amplified impact of academic achievement, non-cognitive skills, and family environment. For elementary school students, class size was also an influential factor. However, a significant portion of the increase remains unexplained by the observed variables, suggesting that uncaptured structural or environmental shifts likely played substantial roles.
This is the English version of the Japanese Discussion Paper (26-J-020).
