Introduction to EBPM (Evidence-Based Policy Making) Episode 2: Key Elements of Impact Evaluation and Randomized Controlled Trials

         
Author Name SEKIZAWA Yoichi (Senior Fellow, RIETI)
Creation Date/NO. March 2026 26-P-005
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Abstract

  • There are two elements that are crucial to building reliable evidence: (1) the existence of comparable treatment and control groups, and (2) the availability of measurable outcomes.
  • In randomized controlled trials (RCTs), a simple coin toss can be used to assign units to treatment and control groups, thereby creating comparable groups.
  • In encouragement designs, which are one form of RCT, individuals who are eligible for the intervention are randomly divided into an encouragement group and a control group, and only the encouragement group is actively encouraged to take up the intervention.
  • In cluster RCTs, the unit of randomization is groups—such as classes, schools, or municipalities—so that one can implement RCTs even when individual-level randomization is difficult.
  • Familiarity with statistical terms such as statistical significance and 95% confidence intervals makes it easier to understand the results of impact evaluations.