The Impact of Extreme Temperature on Chronic Absenteeism at School

Using panel data on students enrolled in public elementary and junior high schools in Saitama Prefecture, we conduct a comprehensive analysis focusing primarily on the effects of temperature on school non-attendance, while also examining academic achievement, non-cognitive skills, bullying, and violent behavior. The results indicate that an increase in the number of extremely hot and cold days in the previous year leads to an increase in the number of non-attending students per school grade. The rise in school non-attendance is not driven by illness or accidents; rather, anxiety and mood disorders and anxiety emerge as statistically significant contributing factors. Moreover, the increase in non-attendance associated with both high and low temperatures is particularly pronounced among junior high school students. The findings also suggest that the adverse effects of extreme heat may be partially offset by the presence of air conditioning (cooling systems) installed in schools. In contrast, no significant effects of temperature are observed for bullying or violent behavior. Furthermore, despite prior studies reporting negative effects of temperature on academic achievement and non-cognitive skills, no clear effects were observed for these outcomes. These findings suggest that the estimated and non-cognitive effects may be attenuated by an increase in non-attending students who do not participate in achievement tests.