Influence of E-commerce on Birth Rate: Evidence from rural China based on county-level longitudinal data

Author Name KOMATSU Sho (University of Tokyo) / MA Xinxin (Hosei University) / SUZUKI Aya (University of Tokyo)
Creation Date/NO. October 2022 22-E-101
Research Project Studies on Transformations of International Systems and their Impact on Japan's Mid- & Long-term Competitiveness
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Using official data from the Jiangsu region to construct county-level longitudinal samples and econometric models for the period from 2011 to 2019, we investigated the causal relationship between e-commerce development and regional birth rate in rural China. We used two indicators, the presence and number of Taobao villages in a county, to measure the development level of rural e-commerce. We find that e-commerce significantly reduces the crude birth rate (CBR) in most models, although this influence varies between groups. Furthermore, the negative effect of e-commerce is larger in regions with higher ratios of primary industry employment and smaller in well-developed regions. A U-shaped relationship exists between economic development level and CBR. Additionally, CBR is lower in counties with higher population densities and higher in counties with higher ratios of primary sector employment.