Recursive Expectations Approach in Policymaking

Author Name KOBAYASHI Keiichiro (Faculty Fellow, RIETI)
Creation Date/NO. October 2022 22-P-028
Research Project Macroeconomic Policy and Political Philosophy toward Economic Growth
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The primary contribution of modern economics to policy analysis may be the recognition of the crucial role of expectations in policy intervention. The essence of expectations is to think about others' thinking. We argue that policymakers need recursive thinking, that is, the ability to think about thinking and review three policy episodes related to the lack of recursive thinking. We see that the disciplinary divide or the limited scope of recursive thinking on the side of policymakers can cause huge damage to social welfare in times of crisis. Finally, we consider two examples of future agendas in the recursive approach.